Montenegro has a real opportunity to become the next member of the European Union, but success will depend on the ability of institutions to implement reforms, preserve political dialogue, strengthen the rule of law and safeguard the civic character of society. European integration is no longer a matter of technically fulfilling obligations, but rather a test of the political maturity of the state and society, it was assessed in the special programme “Open Doors”, produced by the Centre for Civic Education (CCE) to mark 14 years since the start of Montenegro’s negotiations with the European Union, and broadcast by TVE.
The programme, authored by Zvezdana Kovač, Director for Strategy and Communications at the CCE, featured the Ambassador of the European Union to Montenegro, Johan Satler, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro, Ervin Ibrahimović, the former European Parliament Rapporteur for Montenegro, Tonino Picula, the President of the Montenegrin Pan-European Union, Dr Gordana Đurović, the Executive Director of the CCE, Daliborka Uljarević, PES MP and member of the European Integration Committee of the Parliament of Montenegro, Miloš Pižurica, and DPS MP and Vice-President, Dr Ivan Vuković.
Speaking about the achievements of the negotiation process, Ambassador Satler assessed that Montenegro is today fundamentally a different country from what it was in 2012. “The accession process has a transformative effect. We have seen this in all previous rounds of enlargement, and we are now seeing it in the case of Montenegro. You have better institutions, more rights for citizens and stronger protection mechanisms. However, the work is not finished. The focus must remain on the rule of law, the fight against organised crime and corruption, as well as on other key reforms,” Satler stated.
“Montenegro has a historic opportunity to become a member of the European Union by 2028. This would be an important geopolitical step forward not only for the country itself but also a strong incentive for other states in the accession process. However, the enlargement process is based on the principle of merit and requires continuous political dialogue and the genuine engagement of all political actors,” said MEP Tonino Picula.
Minister Ibrahimović believes that the goal is ambitious, but achievable. “The ball is now in our court. Our institutions must demonstrate maturity, responsibility and readiness to do what is expected of them. We want to close the negotiating chapters by the end of 2026 and become a full member of the European Union in 2028,” Ibrahimović said.
Although the process has gained new momentum in recent years, Dr Gordana Đurović warns that the key challenges remain the same. “The political messages are clear, and the European goal appears within reach. However, our institutions are still not sufficiently autonomous, stable and resilient to political influence. The rule of law remains the question that is most difficult to answer, and we have additionally degraded the quality of political dialogue,” she warned.
Daliborka Uljarević pointed to the risk that European progress could remain merely formal. “We have a Montenegrin paradox: on the one hand European progress, and on the other democratic regression. These processes should not be separated. Today we are more in a technical phase, or a phase of simulating reforms, than in one of changes that genuinely improve the quality of life of citizens and bring legal certainty and democratic standards,” she explained.
“I would not agree that the civic concept in Montenegro is under threat. We even have relevant research by CEDEM showing that ethnic distance in Montenegro is at its lowest level since measurements began – currently 21.1%, compared to 35.7% in 2018. I believe these figures clearly show that the ethnic divide is narrowing precisely as Montenegro moves rapidly towards the EU,” said Miloš Pižurica when asked about the alleged threat to the civic character of the state.
However, Uljarević pointed to worrying trends in society through different data. “Research conducted by the CCE shows that nearly 60% of Montenegrin citizens today would have an issue with having a partner of a different ethnic or religious background,” she said, warning that this is not only a social issue but also a security threat. “We are witnessing an intense ideologically and politically motivated revisionism that does not merely seek to alter certain historical facts, but to influence a change in the very fabric of Montenegrin society. That already represents a security threat,” Uljarević stressed.
“The more Montenegro progresses towards the European Union, the greater the pressures will be to slow down or halt that progress. Therefore, the final stage of the process will be the most politically sensitive,” warned Ivan Vuković, speaking about external influences and regional relations in the context of European integration.
Picula recalled that the European Parliament has repeatedly warned of the dangers posed by foreign malign influence, disinformation and hybrid threats that may undermine democratic processes and the country’s European path.
Regarding the need to preserve broad political and social consensus around European integration, it was underlined that the final phase of negotiations cannot be successful if the European agenda remains the project of only one Government or political majority. Instead, it must include the opposition, civil society, the academic community and other social actors.
Ambassador Satler recalled that cooperation and the ability to reach compromise were among the most important reasons why Montenegro had achieved significant progress over the past two years. He called on Parliament and political parties to come together and complete this work as soon as possible, so that the constitutional amendments necessary for closing certain negotiating chapters could be adopted before the summer recess. “It is encouraging that political parties and individuals have, in the recent period, been willing to place the broader public interest above narrow party calculations. I am counting on the same approach during this final phase of negotiations. I am convinced that we will succeed in preserving this spirit of joint action and that we will complete the final stage of the European path together,” he stated.
Pižurica believes that European integration remains one of the rare areas around which there is still a high degree of consensus in Montenegro. “Regardless of political differences, the European path remains the most important common denominator of Montenegrin society. That is precisely why it is important for the process to be open, transparent and inclusive, so that all relevant social actors can contribute to achieving the state’s strategic objective,” he assessed.
Vuković strssed that since the change of government in 2020, the opposition has supported all key decisions that brought Montenegro closer to the EU, including reforms necessary for obtaining the IBAR and closing certain negotiating chapters. At the same time, he stressed that the adoption of the Law on Internal Affairs and the Law on the National Security Agency, as well as the manner in which they were adopted, had seriously undermined trust. “The opposition can no longer be reduced to a voting machine that will automatically support the actions of the Government whenever qualified majorities are required,” he said, expressing the expectation that continued dialogue would make it possible to restore a minimum level of political trust and preserve the European consensus as a shared national interest.
The interlocutors were almost unanimous in agreeing that Montenegro should remain focused on full membership, commenting on ideas of gradual or conditional accession. Gordana Đurović emphasised that any compromise would have regional consequences. “Full membership is what suits Montenegro. We are a new generation of accession agreements, and our case is testing how Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and others will be expected to respond tomorrow. If we accept something, it will signal that the region should accept it as well. None of these models or modalities apply to Montenegro,” Đurović stated firmly.
Ambassador Satler recalled that at the summit in Tivat, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that 2028 is within reach. “There is a genuine opportunity for Montenegro to successfully complete this final stretch and become the next member of the EU. Of course, much depends on what President von der Leyen also emphasised – the homework has not yet been completed. For every negotiating chapter you wish to close, you need the agreement of all 27 Member States. And once the technical part of the process is completed, the political phase of ratification follows – in some countries requiring a simple parliamentary majority, and in others a qualified majority. That is why it is extremely important to work with all Member States, especially those where there are greater political challenges,” he added.
Any failure to maintain the current momentum of Montenegro’s European integration would have serious consequences for the reform process and public optimism, the interlocutors assessed.
“It would mean a huge missed opportunity to improve ourselves in every respect – from the rule of law to the quality of life of citizens. The European Union is not merely a political objective, but an opportunity to build a more stable and functional society,” Uljarević concluded.
The programme “Open Doors” was produced to mark 14 years since the beginning of Montenegro’s negotiations with the European Union and represents the CCE’s contribution to public dialogue on European integration, its challenges and prospects.
Maja Marinović, Programme Associate