Montenegro’s accession process has been characterised by formal progress that often outpaces substantive change, creating the risk that European integration becomes a technical exercise rather than a driver of genuine and sustainable transformation, according to the analysis “Montenegro as a Frontrunner Without Functional Rule of Law”, the first publication in the Montenegro in Focus edition of the German Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES), authored by Daliborka Uljarević, Executive Director of the Centre for Civic Education (CCE).
The analysis recalls that Montenegro opened all 33 negotiating chapters between 2012 and 2026, demonstrating a high degree of formal alignment with the EU framework. However, progress in closing chapters remains slow and uneven. Over the course of 14 years, only 14 chapters, or approximately 42%, have been provisionally closed, despite the renewed momentum of the EU enlargement policy.
“The Government’s ambition to close all remaining chapters by the end of 2026 appears increasingly unrealistic, even within a favourable geopolitical context and amid the European Commission’s strengthened focus on enlargement. Failure to achieve this objective would primarily reflect the lack of political commitment within the ruling majority, rather than limitations stemming from EU institutions or Member States,” the analysis further notes.
Uljarević points out that the underlying causes of this discrepancy between ambitions and results are persistent structural challenges, particularly in the areas of political stability and the rule of law, including judicial independence, limited results in the fight against corruption and organised crime, as well as the misuse of public resources for party-political and narrow interests. Commitment to European integration, as stated, remains predominantly formal, accompanied by a lack of consistent and genuine political will, resulting in modest progressin key areas.
The analysis emphasises that the rule of law, although a fundamental condition for EU accession, continues to be burdened by a pronounced gap between normative alignment and practical implementation. The consequences are reflected in low levels of public trust, lengthy proceedings, inconsistent judicial practice, weak accountability mechanisms, and persistent political influence over institutions.
Attention is devoted to the judicial system, which remains vulnerable to strong structural and political pressures. It is stressed that Chapters 23 and 24 constitute the “heart” of the negotiations and that progress cannot be reduced to the adoption of laws and strategies alone but must also entail their full implementation and guarantees of independence, efficiency, and accountability.
Judicial efficiency remains a chronic issue, marked by case backlogs, limited resources, uneven workload distribution, and insufficiently developed alternative dispute resolution mechanisms. The scale of the problem is further confirmed by the practice of the European Court of Human Rights, which issued 82 judgments against Montenegro between 2009 and 2025, finding rights violations in 95% of cases, most commonly related to fair trial guarantees, the excessive length of proceedings, and the non-enforcement of judgments. The analysis also specifically warns about the consequences of the increasingly pronounced “medialisation” of the judiciary.
With regard to governance and accountability within the judiciary, the analysis notes that reforms of the Judicial and Prosecutorial Councils have failed to produce the necessary changes. The financial independence of the judiciary remains weak, while additional concerns include the inconsistent application of disciplinary mechanisms, the absence of institutional responses to findings of the State Audit Institution (SAI), and the excessive use of pre-trial detention. “All of this points to deeply rooted systemic weaknesses that continue to limit the efficiency and credibility of the system,” the analysis states.
In the area of anti-corruption efforts, a positive shift is recognised through the establishment of relevant institutions, although their effectiveness remains limited, particularly in high-level corruption cases. The Agency for Prevention of Corruption (APC) continues to face challenges related to independence, political influence, and an approach focused more on administrative compliance than substantive accountability.
The analysis further warns that the security sector has failed to demonstrate resilience to politicisation, highlighting recent amendments to the Law on Internal Affairs as an illustration. These amendments were adopted without adequate public consultations and despite sharp criticism, while unjustifiably expanding the powers of the Minister and weakening procedural safeguards, thereby creating space for arbitrariness.
Ultimately, the analysis concludes that Montenegro has developed a comprehensive legislative and institutional framework for the rule of law, but that this framework still fails to produce sufficiently sustainable results. The rule of law therefore remains the central and most sensitive component of the accession process, while the judiciary most clearly illustrates the gap between formal progress and effective transformation.
Ivan Kašćelan, Project Assistant