The economic situation remains a significant challenge, with 48.5% of Montenegrins stating their monthly income is insufficient to cover expenses. This is compounded by a crisis of legitimacy in state institutions, excluding the Special State Prosecutor (SSP), as trust declines among those with the power to improve citizens’ lives but who continue to prioritize party interests over the public good. The effectiveness of the opposition is also perceived as inadequate, and there are shifts in perceptions of foreign policy alignments, according to some of the key findings from the July MNE Pulse survey conducted by the Centre for Civic Education (CCE) and the DAMAR Institute. Detailed and comparative findings will be analyzed in a study in September.
“The fact that citizens trust the church and NGOs the most, while the Parliament and the Government are at the bottom of the trust scale, indicates a serious legitimacy crisis of the institutions, which is not conducive to the necessary democratization and Europeanization,” said Daliborka Uljarević, Executive Director of the CCE, reflecting on the findings of the July MNE Pulse.
A shift is noted in the main foreign policy pillars of Montenegro, with reduced support for the EU and increased leanings towards Serbia and Russia. “Additionally, opinions are divided on support in a direct conflict between the USA and Russia, with 43% supporting the USA and 35% Russia, while more than a fifth are undecided,” Uljarević noted.
There have been shifts compared to earlier research by the CCE and DAMAR regarding Montenegro’s key foreign policy pillars through the decrease of the support for the EU as a cornerstone of foreign policy, and simultanious increase for Serbia and Russia. „Additionally, opinions are divided on the issue of support in the event of a direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia, although support leans towards the U.S. at 43%, compared to 35% for Russia, with more than one-fifth of respondents remaining undecided on this issue“, noted Uljarević.
Almost half of the citizens (48.5%) find their monthly income insufficient to cover living expenses, while just over two-fifths (42.5%) believe it is adequate. “Total of 46% of respondents consider their standard of living to be the same as last year, about 30% feel they are living better, and around 22% believe they are living worse,” explained Vuk Čađenović, Executive Director of the Institute DAMAR, on the perception of the economic situation.
Regarding opposition activities, there are no significant changes from the February MNE Pulse, which first measured this category. On a scale of 1 to 5, no opposition party scored a three, with the DPS (2.33) being slightly better perceived than URA (2.1), and the opposition activities of the Bosniak Party (BS) perceived worse (1.84 in early July compared to 2.2 in February 2024). Meanwhile, the work of the SD was rated at 1.97, and the Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) at 1.69.
“The opposition should act more energetically and present more questions and initiatives to the authorities believe 43.6% of respondents, while about 25% think it should radicalize its struggle and use non-institutional mechanisms. Over a fifth (23%) are undecided. Some emphasize the need to re-examine past actions and change the overall approach to gain voters’ trust,” said Čađenović.
In the area of the rule of law, the MNE Pulse regularly measures perceptions of the Special State Prosecutor (SSP) and the capacity of institutions to prosecute abuses of power.
“Now 29.7% of citizens believe there are no untouchables for the SSP, the highest percentage since the appointment and measurement in the MNE Pulse, and we had these intervals in July and October 2022, as well as April 2023 and February 2024. There is also a decline in those who believe actions are only taken against those losing power within their parties – 36.8%. Conversely, there is an increase in those who believe the SSP depends on politicians, now at 23%, similar to the first measurement in July 2022. The perception that abuses by all authorities are being prosecuted has also increased, although the view prevails that there is still selective action, with new authorities being less scrutinized,” Uljarević said.
Complete trust in PM Spajić is held by only 15% of the citizenry, while 33% partially trust him, and 37% do not trust him at all.
“There is a dominant negative opinion about PM Spajić’s attitude towards the Parliament of Montenegro, with almost three-fifths (58.6%) believing he should attend Parliament when invited by MPs and align his duties accordingly, while just over a quarter (26.1%) think he should not attend Parliament if he has other obligations,” Uljarević noted.
“Opinions are divided on the capacity of Spajić’s government to conclude negotiations with the EU, with 41.7% positive and 38% negative, while 20.3% are undecided,” Čađenović indicated.
Additionally, 45% believe in the fulfillment of the Europe Now 2 programme, while 40% do not.
According to the citizens, the Government is predominantly focused on party interests (52.2%) rather than the interests of citizens (47.8%), employment is perceived to be based more on party and nepotistic connections (53.4%) rather than individual merits (46.6%). Consequently, there is a perception that the new authorities also favor their party officials, activists, and members (46.6%) rather than valuing knowledge and skills regardless of party affiliation (39%).
Data collection was conducted using the CAPI method from 4 to 12 July 2024, on a three-stage stratified random sample of 1,007 Montenegrin citizens.
MNE Pulse is a joint initiative of CCE and DAMAR aimed at helping those working on the strategic democratic shaping of society to make decisions based on reliable data and thorough analysis, keeping citizens at the center. This enhances the quality of public debate on important issues and raises the level of accountability of all actors.
This edition is supported through the Core Grant of the regional project SMART Balkan – Civil Society for a Connected Western Balkans, implemented by the Center for Civil Society Promotion (CPCD) from Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Center for Research and Public Policy (CRPM) from North Macedonia, and the Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM) from Albania, and is financially supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Norway.
Maja Marinović, Programme Associate